The objective of this discussion paper is to offer decision-makers and citizens a synthesis of existing information on likely changes in the agri-food systems once oil becomes expensive and scarce.

The paper highlights the fossil-fuel dependence in existing agricultural production and distribution systems as part of a larger and highly unsustainable structural problem in the global economy. Peak oil portends a world that will aggressively increase current levels of fossil-fuel consumption, unemployment, hunger, and environmental degradation – all in the name of producing more food to feed hungry populations in developing countries. This dependence is part of a larger structural problem, of a comparative advantage in access and use of cheap energy (oil). In agriculture, this structural problem manifests itself in the increasing homogenization of agriculture as well as in the industrial substitution and appropriation of the sector, most specifically its chemical- and mechanical-energy components.

Discussion paper by Rajeswari S. Raina
Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, February 2011

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